Forrester сулит удвоение мирового рынка ПК к 2010 году

К концу десятилетия число персональных компьютеров, используемых во всем мире, почти удвоится, но это не должно радовать западных производителей, утверждает аналитическая фирма Forrester Research.

К 2010 году на развитых рынках США, Европы и Азиатско-Тихоокеанского региона добавится 150 млн новых ПК, а на развивающихся рынках — 566 млн. В результате общее число эксплуатируемых компьютеров достигнет 1,3 млрд, что на 575 млн больше, чем сегодня. Среднегодовой прирост ПК на развивающихся рынках составит 31%, прогнозирует Forrester.

Конкуренция за долю рынка стравит лидеров индустрии, таких как Dell и Hewlett-Packard, с местными производителями развивающихся стран. Главным фактором ускорения станут цены.

По мнению Forrester, недавняя продажа IBM своего отделения ПК китайской Lenovo Group отражает уверенность компании в том, что максимальными темпами рынок ПК будет расти в развивающихся странах, и лидировать на нем будут местные компании. Forrester пишет также, что это будет способствовать распространению Linux, так как в этих странах нет традиции использования Windows, и локальные рынки для снижения цен прибегнут к операционной системе с открытым исходным кодом.

«Местные производители ПК, такие как Lenovo Group в Китае и „Аквариус“ в России, которые могут точнее подбирать размеры ПК, цены и приложения для своих рынков, в конечном счете выиграют борьбу за долю рынка», — говорится в заявлении старшего аналитика Forrester Саймона Йейтса.

Согласно прогнозу Forrester, к 2010 году в Китае добавятся 178 млн новых пользователей ПК, в Индии — 80 млн, а в Индонезии — 40 млн. Персональный компьютер будет у 46% граждан Мексики, которая демонстрирует самое глубокое проникновение ПК для всех 16 развивающихся рынков.

В отчете Forrester анализируются рынки Китая, Индии, Индонезии, Бразилии, Пакистана, России, Нигерии, Бангладеша, Мексики, Филиппин, Вьетнама, Египта, Эфиопии, Турции, Ирана и Таиланда.

Предыдущие публикации:

2004-11-30		Производителям ПК надо готовиться к серьезному удару?
2004-12-08		IBM продает Lenovo отделение ПК

В продолжение темы:

2005-02-11		Acer рвется к господству на мировом рынке ПК
2005-02-16		В 2005 году рост продаж ПК может замедлиться
2005-04-18		Объем продаж ПК в первом квартале увеличился
2005-05-16		Forrester: темпы роста рынка ИТ завышены из-за ослабевшего доллара
2005-05-27		Gartner: в 2005 году будет продано свыше 200 млн ПК
2005-12-21		В 2006 году темпы роста продаж ПК замедлятся
2006-01-19		В 2005 году рынок ПК заметно вырос, но в 2006 ожидается стабилизация

Обсуждение и комментарии

	zenith 15 Dec 2004 12:31 PM
Вообще чёрт ногу сломит - кто пророчит смерть пк, кто процветание и рост... Они хоть бы договорились между собой, аналитики мля.

	suid - suidsuid.suid 16 Dec 2004 10:08 AM
Хде тут записывают в китайцы???

	73137 18 Dec 2004 5:09 PM
Именно эта тенденция ближе всего к реальности. А те, кто пророчит смерть ПК, забыли, что кроме Америки есть еще и Индия и другие страны. Как и те, кто утверждает, что якобы мир сможет еще 100 лет прожить на нефти.

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